APRI Armenia Research Fellow Melkonian Sergei recently spoke at “The Caucasus Dialogue—2026” international research and educational program. The discussions brought together speakers from Russia, Iran, Georgia, Türkiye, India, and the United States, as well as participants from other countries, including Azerbaijan.
Speaking in multiple expert sessions—“The South Caucasus and the Middle East: Cooperation and Contradictions among States,” “Transformation of the Balance of Power in the Caucasus: Winners and Losers?” and “The Caucasus as a Bridge from Europe to Asia? Logistics Projects and Initiatives in the Region”—Sergei shared several key insights on where the region is heading:
- The South Caucasus is becoming increasingly interconnected with the Middle East, both in economic and security terms.
- Russia’s presence in the South Caucasus continues to decline, while the positions of Türkiye, the European Union, and the United States are strengthening. This represents a broader, long-term trend rather than a situational shift.
- If Iran emerges from the war in a stronger position, Tehran will be able to project its interests more actively onto the South Caucasus.
- For the long-term stability of the South Caucasus, regional transport routes must be inclusive rather than exclusive. The reopening of existing communications is a far more productive solution than creating new dividing lines between countries.
